The High Road Papers - Latest Comments in Phoenix Home Prices to Drop Another 23%!

Re: Phoenix Home Prices to Drop Another 23%!

Evan Little — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 01:58:41 -0000

Yikes!! Surprising the Phoenix area has that much more to fall, but there was certainly A LOT of speculators gobbling up many of the new homes like in the Surprise area. Here in Orange County we're predicted to to fall another 11% or so by June 2010. Although the demand is back and buyers are back out making aggressive offers or foreclosures continue to drive prices down.

Re: Phoenix Home Prices to Drop Another 23%!

Highest CD Rates — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 06:21:10 -0000

This is just publicity stunt of Fiserv. Now everyone in talking about them and even some people starts believing there prediction.

Re: Phoenix Home Prices to Drop Another 23%!

wholesaleforums — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 21:50:54 -0000

Yeah I thought the same, I thoughtI should keep my money in lloyds shaires since they are at a good price and then it totally dropped. should of kept it under my bed. lol

Re: Phoenix Home Prices to Drop Another 23%!

wholesaleforums — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 21:47:13 -0000

Thats right totaly agree, Money makes money and all the big guys they are not bothered as they have got everthing they need. the banks have been greedy

Re: Phoenix Home Prices to Drop Another 23%!

Kansas City Real Estate Broker — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 18:34:56 -0000

I agree that making predictions like they have is irresponsible journalism at best. I will I could predict the market, any market with any degree of certainty. Headline seekers it sounds like...

Re: Phoenix Home Prices to Drop Another 23%!

Jay Thompson — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 19:54:25 -0000

Thanks Julie for stopping by and commenting - Case-Shiller I've heard of, I've just never heard Fiserv associated with them. But that's neither here nor there. My issue isn't with Fiserv or CS (though broad-based market indexes do have problems -- real estate is local). My problem here is yet more pathetic main-stream media reporting. "Fiserv (or whoever) says X" is lame with no supporting data or analysis behind it.

And really, projecting home prices eight months into the future to the tenth of a decimal point just seems silly.

As an aside, if you've got any control over that site you linked (or know who does) you might want to get the "news" updated. The most recent story highlighted on that page is from November of 2008. That's hardly news, particularly given how dynamic the housing market is.

Re: Phoenix Home Prices to Drop Another 23%!

Jay Thompson — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 19:45:11 -0000

Greg -

I didn't "go psycho" over a prediction that home prices will drop. Like I said in the article, maybe they will, maybe they won't. I went psycho over lousy reporting -- referencing an analysis but providing ZERO info as to what that analysis contained, or what data the conclusion was based on.

And honestly, predicting a price change eight months from now to the tenth of a percentage point is ludicrous. I'd say the same thing if they were "reporting" a predicted increase in prices.

And no I'm not worried, at all, about my commissions. The simple fact is no matter how lousy the market is, no matter what happens with interest rates, people still buy and sell homes every single day.

Agreed that flippers were *part* of what got us into this mess. Lenders giving loans to anyone with a pulse was another significant part of the problem. Let's be real, should someone that can't document their income, with no job, and nothing to put down be given a home loan?

Re: Phoenix Home Prices to Drop Another 23%!

nickomcbrain — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 16:48:27 -0000

We all knew that this recession affected everyone a lot. Jay, you are much specific about the loss(in percentage) and it was useful for most of the brokers who thinks making money is pretty good easy. From this article I learned that hard work earns!.

Re: Phoenix Home Prices to Drop Another 23%!

Julie Nixon — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 15:53:59 -0000

The media routinely references Fiserv home price data in its housing market articles because Fiserv produces the Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes. The Fiserv Case-Shiller® Indexes are recognized as the most authoritative and trustworthy home price change measures in the industry. The Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes facilitate the measurement of market appreciation or depreciation by accurately tracking residential home prices over time. For more information on the indexes, please visit http://www.fiservlendingsol...

Re: Phoenix Home Prices to Drop Another 23%!

gregdove — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 12:58:57 -0000

How come real estate agents go so psycho when people predict that home prices will drop?
Are you so worried about your commissions?
Why not think about the great opportunities for people who cannot normally afford homes.
Instead of flippers, who got us into this mess.

Re: Phoenix Home Prices to Drop Another 23%!

Kyle — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 20:34:55 -0000

According to Yahoo!Finace, Fiserv predicted the fall of the housing market, just not such a steep decline. here's the link http://finance.yahoo.com/ne...

I actually agree that prices will fall again, but probably not 25% here in Phoenix, i would expect more of a 10-15% drop based on: short sales becoming foreclosures, unemployment remaining high, mortgage rates bouncing higher starting in 2Q next year (unless Fed keeps buying it down to absurd levels), and another big chunk of foreclosures coming to market from soured loans in prime and ARM defaults. Plus the mortgage bankers association came out and said new mortgage apps were down like 13% this month? drop in demand + more supply = lower prices.

But then again, who knows really??? just an opinion

Re: Phoenix Home Prices to Drop Another 23%!

DougFrancis — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 20:16:10 -0000

I heard this figure on the radio today in Washington D.C., so everyone is talking about it.

When the Dow hit 6,500 in February 2009 and Jim Cramer mentioned something about the Dow possibly heading toward 4,500, I thought "maybe I will just keep that cash safe in the money market fund."

Um, the Dow is now at 9,949. Bad news sells.

Re: Phoenix Home Prices to Drop Another 23%!

Madison homes — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 16:54:19 -0000

I think it's clear from the barrage of "Balloon Boy" coverage that no, the media does not cover the news anymore. They cover "stories" that they think will attract eyeballs so that they can sell on-air advertising. You have to tune into the McNeil Lehrer hour or C-Span to get news that's actually based on facts. To simply guess at the projected annual increase or decline that a market might take in the next 12 months is the height of irresponsibility. The public is confused enough as it is without so-called news organizations flat out making things up.

Re: Phoenix Home Prices to Drop Another 23%!

garysattelberger — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:36:35 -0000

It never ceases to amaze me what passes for journalism these days. You're absolutley right, "The objective of the news is to get us to watch." The "news" is more about attracting readers/viewers than it is about jouralism and sensational headlines are incredibly good at drawing eyeballs in.

Re: Phoenix Home Prices to Drop Another 23%!

NJShore — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 10:55:22 -0000

Well, maybe it was a slow news day. But, there are a lot of people to back the prediction of a further decline. No one would listen to Peter Schiff back during the boom days. No one got a chance to voted for Ron Paul. Here is a clip of one of the many money men who has taken his ball and moved to Asia: http://tinyurl.com/wat-Jim-...

I'm not an economist, but I will make a prediction. More and more of this slime will move else where - once they decide we are not the number one military power that can protect their ill gotten wealth. And, that the new regimen will not take their money.

We had a great opportunity to move the country away from automobile manufacturing and oil consumption into a new era. But, old habits and lobbyists are hard to stop.

Re: Phoenix Home Prices to Drop Another 23%!

davidlorti — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 10:19:10 -0000

I was asked about this by a client. Though I don't know the future any more than the creators of this report (note: crystal balls are not for sale at the corner stand, and understanding that for every economist one perspective, there is another equally powerful opposite perspective from another economist somewhere) for our local market, I do believe that other markets, particularly Southern California, seem to still have unrealistic prices for the economic conditions we have.

In many respects, I see the Phoenix area as ahead of the whole curve in development of this downturn cycle with the other markets lagging. I see a lot of prices that reflect pricing well before any run-up and this is what makes me skeptical of the numbers stated in the report about the Phoenix area.

Re: Phoenix Home Prices to Drop Another 23%!

Dru Bloomfield — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 09:54:22 -0000

Jay, Glad you took the time to research this one. I did a double take when I read it yesterday. Going to go run some numbers, as I think there are some economic realities that are not being addressed, like how much a sq/ft it costs to actually build a house.

Re: Phoenix Home Prices to Drop Another 23%!

Jay Thompson — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 09:45:07 -0000

I spouted a few epithets when I read the article Melissa. It drives me bonkers. The MSM would never report on some organization that said, "THE RECESSION IS OVER, NIRVANA IS NEAR!"

Re: Phoenix Home Prices to Drop Another 23%!

Jay Thompson — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 09:42:43 -0000

Actually, that's not a bad plan. The long term holding of real estate generally produces very nice returns.

Re: Phoenix Home Prices to Drop Another 23%!

Jay Thompson — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 09:41:58 -0000

I think we're at or near the bottom too. The big question is how long we'll bounce along the bottom -- and no one knows.

And I could be completely wrong.

Re: Phoenix Home Prices to Drop Another 23%!

Jay Thompson — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 09:40:57 -0000

I like your prediction better Doug!

Re: Phoenix Home Prices to Drop Another 23%!

Jay Thompson — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 09:39:52 -0000

Silly me, thinking the news was here to investigate and report the news... ;)

Re: Phoenix Home Prices to Drop Another 23%!

Jay Thompson — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 09:39:06 -0000

Appreciate the tip Dan! And yep, I think it will turn some off and empower others. We hear all the time, "But on TV they said..."

Re: Phoenix Home Prices to Drop Another 23%!

Jay Thompson — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 09:37:50 -0000

Randy - yep, just watch the video and you'll see several people already trusting what some random reporter on the street tells them about some random company's "analysis".

It's frightening.

Re: Phoenix Home Prices to Drop Another 23%!

jameswheelock — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 08:27:25 -0000

Fiserv's prediction irritates me more than housingpredictor.com and they seem to just pull things out of the sky. Like when they said the population in Texas was expected to fall over 2009. This is so contrary to any census type estimate it amazes me. The worst thing about these entities that seem to pull these numbers out of the sky is they often rank well in search results leading consumers to take what they say as fact.

James Wheelock