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It's frightening.
I caught it on the news, the lack of any data as to how they reached this conclusion is exactly why I sent the article to you.
Part of me wondered if the report would 'turn off' some buyers, turning it into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Or, would it make buyers feel more empowered than they already are, throwing out insane lowball offers because, well, "...I saw it on TV/The Internet, so it must be true..."
The objective of the news is to get us to watch. Useful information? A close second...but second none the less.
People and companies that do this type of speculation without anything to back it up need to do something else.
And I could be completely wrong.
costa rica condos
First of all, as you point out, how in the name of sweet Merry Christmas can anyone predict where housing prices are going to be in 6 months?!? Things are changing so quickly that making an accurate prediction of market conditions in 6 DAYS would be a challenge for most. Second, who the heck is this FISERV and why are they, suddenly, an authority? Third, and this is the one that really gets me, is that when news organizations report these "findings" in the sensationalized way that they do, it perpetuates fear and unease among consumers. Some that are easily swayed might hear this and think that they should wait to buy or sell, thereby contributing to the problem and helping to realize "statistical analysis" like this. GAH.
It's too early in the morning to be this riled up. :)
James Wheelock
In many respects, I see the Phoenix area as ahead of the whole curve in development of this downturn cycle with the other markets lagging. I see a lot of prices that reflect pricing well before any run-up and this is what makes me skeptical of the numbers stated in the report about the Phoenix area.
I'm not an economist, but I will make a prediction. More and more of this slime will move else where - once they decide we are not the number one military power that can protect their ill gotten wealth. And, that the new regimen will not take their money.
We had a great opportunity to move the country away from automobile manufacturing and oil consumption into a new era. But, old habits and lobbyists are hard to stop.
When the Dow hit 6,500 in February 2009 and Jim Cramer mentioned something about the Dow possibly heading toward 4,500, I thought "maybe I will just keep that cash safe in the money market fund."
Um, the Dow is now at 9,949. Bad news sells.
I actually agree that prices will fall again, but probably not 25% here in Phoenix, i would expect more of a 10-15% drop based on: short sales becoming foreclosures, unemployment remaining high, mortgage rates bouncing higher starting in 2Q next year (unless Fed keeps buying it down to absurd levels), and another big chunk of foreclosures coming to market from soured loans in prime and ARM defaults. Plus the mortgage bankers association came out and said new mortgage apps were down like 13% this month? drop in demand + more supply = lower prices.
But then again, who knows really??? just an opinion
Are you so worried about your commissions?
Why not think about the great opportunities for people who cannot normally afford homes.
Instead of flippers, who got us into this mess.
I didn't "go psycho" over a prediction that home prices will drop. Like I said in the article, maybe they will, maybe they won't. I went psycho over lousy reporting -- referencing an analysis but providing ZERO info as to what that analysis contained, or what data the conclusion was based on.
And honestly, predicting a price change eight months from now to the tenth of a percentage point is ludicrous. I'd say the same thing if they were "reporting" a predicted increase in prices.
And no I'm not worried, at all, about my commissions. The simple fact is no matter how lousy the market is, no matter what happens with interest rates, people still buy and sell homes every single day.
Agreed that flippers were *part* of what got us into this mess. Lenders giving loans to anyone with a pulse was another significant part of the problem. Let's be real, should someone that can't document their income, with no job, and nothing to put down be given a home loan?
And really, projecting home prices eight months into the future to the tenth of a decimal point just seems silly.
As an aside, if you've got any control over that site you linked (or know who does) you might want to get the "news" updated. The most recent story highlighted on that page is from November of 2008. That's hardly news, particularly given how dynamic the housing market is.